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Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Seeing Data as the Product of Underlying Structural Forms

Matrix factorization follows from the realization that nothing forces us to accept the data as given. We start with objects placed in rows and record observations on those objects arrayed along the top in columns. Neither the objects nor the measurements need to be preserved in their original form.

It is helpful to remember that the entries in our data matrix are the result of choices made earlier for everything that can be recorded is not tallied. We must decide on the unit of analysis (What objects go in the rows?) and the level of detail in our measurements (What variables go in the columns?). For example, multilevel data can be aggregated as we deem appropriate, so that our objects can be classroom means rather than individual students nested within classrooms and our measures can be total number correct rather than separate right and wrong for each item on the test.

Even without a prior structure, one could separately cluster the rows and the columns using two different distance matrices, that is, a clustering of the rows/columns with distances calculated using the columns/rows. As an example, we can retrieve a hierarchical cluster heat map from an earlier post created using the R heatmap function.


Here, yellow represents a higher rating, and lower ratings are in red. Objects with similar column patterns would be grouped together into a cluster and treated as if they constitute a single aggregate object. Thus, when asked about technology adoption, there appears to be a segment toward the bottom of the heatmap who foresee a positive return to investment and are not concerned with potential problems. The flip side appears toward the top with the pattern of higher yellows and lower reds suggesting more worries than anticipated joys. The middle rows seems to contain individuals falling somewhere between these two extremes.

A similar clustering could be performed for the columns. Any two columns with similar patterns down the rows can be combined and an average score calculated. We started with 8 columns and could end with four separate 2-column clusters or two separate 4-column clusters, depending on where we want to draw the line. A cutting point for the number of row clusters seems less obvious, but it is clear that some aggregation is possible. As a result, we have reordered the rows and columns, one at a time, to reveal an underlying structure: technology adoption is viewed in terms of potential gains and losses with individuals arrayed along a dimension anchored by gain and loss endpoints. 

Before we reach any conclusion concerning the usefulness of this type of "dual" clustering, we might wish to recall that the data come from a study of attitudes toward technology acceptance with the wording sufficiently general that every participant could provide ratings for all the items. If we had, instead, asked about concrete steps and concerns toward actual implementation, we might have found small and large companies living in different worlds and focusing on different details. I referred to this as local subspaces in a prior post, and it applies here because larger companies have in-house IT departments and IT changes a company's point-of-view.

To be clear, conversation is filled with likes and dislikes supported by accompanying feelings and beliefs. This level of generality permits us to communicate quickly and easily. The advertising tells you that the product reduces costs, and you fill in the details only to learn later that you set your cost-savings expectations too high.

We need to invent jargon in order to get specific, but jargon requires considerable time and effort to acquire, a task achieved by only a few with specialized expertise (e.g., the chief financial officer in the case of cost cutting). The head of the company and the head of information technology may well be talking about two different domains when each speaks of reliability concerns. If we want the rows of our data matrix to include the entire range of diverse players in technological decision making while keeping the variables concrete, then we will need a substitute for the above "dual" scaling.

We may wish to restate our dilemma. Causal models, such as the following technology acceptance model (TAM), often guide our data collection and analysis with all the inputs measured as attitude ratings.


Using a data set called technology from the R package plspm, one can estimate and test the entire partial least squares path model. Only the latent variables have been shown in the above diagram (here is a link to a more complete graphic), but it should be clear from the description of the variables in the technology data set that Perceived Usefulness (U) is inferred from ratings of useful, accomplish quickly, increase productivity and enhance effectiveness. However, this is not a model of real-world adoption that depends on so many specific factors concerning quality, cost, availability, service, selection and technical support. The devil is in the details, but causal modeling struggles with high dimensional and sparse data. Consequently, we end up with a model of how people talk about technology acceptance and not a model of the adoption process pushed forward by its internal advocates and slowed by its sticking points, detours and dead ends.

Yet, the causal model is so appealing. First comes perception and then follows intention. The model does all the heavy lifting with causation asserted by the path diagram and not discovered in the data. All I need is a rating scale and some general attitude statements that everyone can answer because they avoid any specifics that might result in a DK (don't know) or NA (not applicable). Although ultimately the details are where technology is accepted or rejected, they just do not fit into the path model. We would need to look elsewhere in R for a solution.

As I have been arguing for some time in this blog, the data that we wish to collect ought to have concrete referents. Although we begin with detailed measures, it is our hope that the data matrix can be simplified and expressed as the product of underlying structural forms. At least with technology adoption and other evolving product categories, there seems to be a linkage between product differentiation and consumer fragmentation. Perhaps surprisingly, matrix factorization with its roots as a computational routine from linear algebra seems to be able to untangle the factors responsible for such coevolving networks.

Thursday, July 9, 2015

The Ecology of Local Subspaces: Mixtures of Parochial Views

No matter where you live, your view of the world is biased and limited, which is the beauty of this magazine cover.


As a marketer, of course, all my maps depict, not place, but consumption. For example, in an earlier post I asked, "What apps are on your Smartphone?" It seemed like a reasonable question for a marketing researcher interested in cross-selling or just learning more about product usage. Nothing special about apps, the same question could have been raised about movies, restaurants, places you drive your car, or stuff that you buy using your credit card. In all these cases, there is more available than any one consumer will use or know. Regardless of what or how we consume, our awareness and familiarity will have the parochial feel of the New Yorker cartoon.

Not Really Big Data But Too Much for a Single Bite

Because we are surveying consumers, we are unlikely to collect data from more than a few thousand respondents, and there are limits to how much information we can obtained before they stop responding. This is not Netflix ratings or Facebook friending or Google searches. Still, the "world of apps" for the young teen in school and the business person using their phone for work are too distant to analyze in a single bite. Moreover, these worldviews cannot be disentangled by examining marginal row or column effects alone for they are a mixture of local subspaces defined by the joint clustering of rows and columns together.

I have titled this post "The Ecology of Local Subspaces" in the hope that our knowledge of ecological systems will help us understand consumption. Animals are mobile, yet the features that enable the movement of fish, birds, and mammals tend to be distinct since they inhabit different subspaces. Hoofed animals are not more or less similar because they do not have wings or fins. Two individuals are similar if they have the same apps on their Smartphones only after we have identified the local subspace of relevant apps that define their similarity. Same and different have meaning only within a given frame of reference. Different apps will enter the similarity computations for those with differing worldviews determined by their situation and usage patterns. An earlier post provides a more detail account and suggests several R packages for simultaneous clustering.

Matrix Factorization Yields a Single Set of Joint Latent Factors 

I have already rejected the traditional approach of marginal row and column clustering. That is, one could cluster the rows using all the columns to calculate distances, either a distance matrix for all the rows or distances to proposed cluster centroids as in k-means clustering. Nothing forces us to make these distances Euclidean, and there are other distance measures in R. The same clustering could be attempted for the columns, although some prefer a factor analysis if they can obtain a reasonable correlation matrix given the columns are binary and sparse.

Our focus, however, is on the matrix whose block pattern is determined by the joint action of the rows and columns together. We seek a single set of joint latent factors with row contributions and column weights that reproduce the data matrix when their product is formed. What forces are at work in the Smartphone apps market that might generate such local subspaces? One could see our joint latent factors as the result of the need to accomplish desired tasks. Then, the apps co-reside on the same Smartphone because together they accomplish those desired tasks, and users who want to perform those tasks receive high scores on the corresponding joint latent factor.

Suppose that we start with 1000 respondents and 100 apps to form a 1000 x 100 data matrix with 100,000 data points (1000 x 100 = 100,000). Finding 10 joint latent factors would mean that we could approximate the 100,000 data points by multiplying a 1000 x 10 user factor score matrix times a 10 x 100 apps factor loading matrix. The matrix multiplication would look like the following diagram (except for more rows and columns for all three matrices) with W containing the 10 factor scores for the 1000 users and H holding the 10 sets of factor loadings for the 100 apps.


The data reduction is obvious given that before I needed 100 apps indicators to describe a user, now I need only 10 joint latent factor scores. Clearly, in order to reproduce the original data matrix, we will require the factor loadings telling us which apps load on which joint latent factors.

More importantly, we will have made the representation simpler by naming the joint latent factors responsible for the data reduction. Apps are added for a purpose, in fact, multiple apps may be installed together or over time to achieve a common goal. The coefficient matrix H displays those purposes as the joint latent factors and the apps that serve those purposes as the factor loadings in each row. The simplification is complete with W that describes the users in terms of those purposes or joint latent factors and not by a listing of the original 100 apps. 

Our hope is to discover an underlying structure revealing the hidden forces generating the observed usage patterns across diverse user communities.

Monday, July 6, 2015

Regression with Multicollinearity Yields Multiple Sets of Equally Good Coefficients

The multiple regression equation represents the linear combination of the predictors with the smallest mean-squared error. That linear combination is a factorization of the predictors with the factors equal to the regression weights. You may see the words "factorization" and "decomposition" interchanged, but do not be fooled. The QR decomposition or factorization is the default computational method for the linear model function lm() in R. We start our linear modeling by attempting to minimize least square error, and we find that a matrix computation accomplishes this task fast and accurately. Regression is not unique for matrix factorization is a computational approach that you will rediscover over and over again as you add R packages to your library (see Two Purposes for Matrix Factorization).

Now, multicollinearity may make more sense. Multicollinearity occurs when I have included in the regression equation several predictors that share common variation so that I can predict any one of those predictors from some linear combination of the other predictors (see tolerance in this link). In such a case, it no longer matters what weights I give individual predictors for I get approximately the same results regardless. That is, there are many predictor factorizations yielding approximately the same predictive accuracy. The simplest illustration is two highly correlated predictors for which we obtain equally good predictions using any one predictor alone or any weighted average of the two predictors together. "It don't make no nevermind" for the best solution with the least squares coefficients is not much better than the second best solution or possibly even the 100th best solution. Here, the "best" solution is defined only for this particular dataset before we ever begin to talk about cross-validation.

On the other hand, when all the predictors are mutually independent, we can speak unambiguously about the partitioning of R-squared. Each independent variable makes its unique contribution, and we can simply add their impacts for the total is truly the sum of the parts. This is the case with orthogonal experimental designs where one calculates the relative contribution of each factor, as one does in rating-based conjoint analysis where the effects are linear and additive. However, one needs to be careful when generalizing from rating-based to choice-based conjoint models. Choice is not a linear function of utility so that the impact on share from changing any predictor depends on the values of all the predictors, including the predictor being manipulated. Said differently, the slope of the logistic function is not constant but varies with the values of the predictors.

We will ignore nonlinearity in this post and concentrate on non-additivity. Our concern will be the ambiguity that enters when the predictors are correlated (see my earlier post on The Relative Importance of Predictors for a more complete presentation).

The effects of collinearity are obvious from the formula calculating R-squared from the cells of the correlation matrix between y and the separate x variables. With two predictors, as shown below by the subscripts 1 and 2, we see that R-squared is a complex interplay of the separate correlations of each predictor with y and the interrelationships among the predictors. Of course, everything simplifies when the predictors are independent with r(1,2)=0 and the numerator reducing to the sum of the squared correlations of each predictor with y divided by a denominator equal to one.


The formulas for the regression coefficients mirror the same "adjustment" process. If the correlation between the first predictor and y represents the total effect of the first variable on y, then the beta weight shows the direct effect of the first variable after removing the its indirect path through the second predictor. Again, when the predictors are uncorrelated, the beta weight equals the correlation with y.


We speak of this adjustment as controlling for the other variables in the regression equation. Since we have only two independent variables, we can talk of the effect of variable 1 on y controlling for variable 2. Such a practice seems to imply that the meaning of variable 1 has not been altered by the controlling for variable 2. We can be more specific by letting variable 1 be a person's weight, variable 2 be a person's height and the dependent variable be some measure of health. What is the contribution of weight to health controlling for height? Wait a second, weight controlling for height is not the same variable as weight. We have a term for that new variable; we call it obesity. Simply stated, the meaning of a term changes as move from the marginal (correlations) to conditional (partial correlations) representations.

None of this is an issue when our goal is solely prediction. Yet, the human desire to control and explain is great, and it is difficult to resist the temptation to jump from association to causal inference. The key is not to accept the data as given but to search for a representation that enables us to estimate additive effects. One alternative treats observed variables as the bases for latent variable regression in structural equation modeling. Another approach, nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF), yields a representation in terms of building blocks that can additively be combined to form relatively complex structures. The model does not need to be formulated as a matrix factorization problem in order for these computational procedures to yield solutions.

Friday, July 3, 2015

The Nature of Heterogeneity in Coevolving Networks of Customers and Products

The genre shirt asks, "What kind of music do u listen 2?"

Microgenres exist because markets are fragmenting and marketers need names to attract emerging customer segments with increasingly specific preferences. The cost of producing and delivery music now supports a plenitude of joint pairings of recordings and customers. The coevolution of music and its audience binds together listening preferences and available alternatives.

I already know a good deal about your preferences by simply knowing that you listen to German Hip Hop or New Orleans Jazz (see the website Every Noise at Once). Those microgenres are not accidental but were named in order to broadcast the information that customers need in order to find what they want to buy and at the same time that artists require to market their goods. Matchmaking demands its own vocabulary. Over time, the language adapts and only the "fittest" categories survive.

R Makes It Easy

The R package NMF simplifies the analysis as I demonstrated in my post on Modeling Plenitude and Speciation. Unfortunately, the data in that post were limited to only 17 broad music categories, but the R code would have been the same had there been several hundred microgenres or several thousand songs.

The output is straightforward once you understand what nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) is trying to accomplish. All matrix factorizations, as the name implies, attempt to identify "simpler" matrices or factors that will reproduce approximately the original data matrix when multiplied together. Simpler, in this case, means that we replace the many observed variables with a much smaller number of latent variables. The belief is that these latent variables will simultaneously account for both row cliques and column microgenres as they coevolve.

This is the matrix factorization diagram that I borrowed from Wikipedia to illustrate the process.


The original data matrix V holds the non-negative numbers indicating the listening intensities for every microgenre is approximated by multiplying a customer graded membership matrix W times a matrix of factor loadings for the observed variables H. The columns of W and the rows of H reflect the number of latent variables. It can be argued that V contains noise so that reproducing it exactly would be overfitting. Thus, nothing of "true" value is lost by replacing the original observations in V with the customer latent scores in W. As you can see, W has fewer columns, but I can always approximate V using the factor loadings in H as a "decoder" to reconstitute the observations without noise (a form of data compression).

Interpreting the Output

We start our interpretation of the output with H containing the factor loadings for the observed variables. For example, we might expect to see one of the latent variables reflecting interest in classical music with sizable factor loadings for the microgenres associated with such music. One of these microgenre could serve as an "anchor" that defines this latent feature if only the most ardent classical music fans listened to this specific microgenre (e.g., Baroque). Hard rock or jazz might be anchors for other latent variables. If we have been careful to select observed variables with high imagery (e.g., is it easy to describe the hard rock listener?), we will be able to name the latent variable based only on its anchors and other high loadings.

The respondent matrix W serves a similar function for customers. Each column is the same latent variable we just described in our interpretation of H. For every row, W gives us a set of graded membership indices telling us the degree to which each latent variable contributes to that respondent's pattern of observed scores. The opera lover, for instance, would have a high membership index for the latent variable associated with opera. We would expect to find a similar pairing between the jazz enthusiasts and a jazz-anchored latent variable, assuming that this is the structure underlying the coevolving network of customer and product.

Once again, we need to remember that nonnegative matrix factorization attempts to reproduce the observed data matrix as closely as possible given the constraints placed on it by limiting the number of latent variables and requiring that all the entries be non-negative. The constraint on the number of latent variables should seem familiar to those who have some experience with principal component or factor analysis. However, unlike principal component analysis, NMF adds the restriction that all the elements of W and H must be non-negative. The result is a series of additive effects with latent variables defined as nonnegative linear combinations of observed variables (H) and respondents represented as convex combinations of those same latent variables (W). Moreover, latent variables can only add to the reproduced intensities as they attempt to approximate the original data matrix V. Lee and Seung explain this as "learning the parts of objects."

Why NMF Works with Marketing Data

All this works quite nicely in fragmented markets where products evolve along with customers desires to generate separate communities. In such coevolving networks, the observed data matrix tends to be sparse and requires a simultaneous clustering of rows and columns. The structure of heterogeneity or individual differences is a mixture of categories and graded category memberships. Customers are free to check as many boxes as they wish and order as much as they like. As a result, respondents can be "pure types" with only one large entry in their row of W and all the other values near zero, or they can be "hybrids" with several substantial membership entries in their row.

Markets will continue to fragment with customers in control and the internet providing more and more customized products. We can see this throughout the entertainment industry (e.g., music, film, television, books, and gaming) but also in almost everything online or in retail warehouses. Increasingly, the analyst will be forced to confront the high-dimensional challenge of dealing with subspaces or local regions populated with non-overlapping customers and products. Block clustering of row and columns is the first step when the data matrix is sparse because these variables over here are relevant only for those respondent over there. Fortunately, R provides the link to several innovative methods for dealing with such case (see my post The Ecology of Data Matrices). 





Sunday, June 28, 2015

Generalizing from Marketing Research: The Right Question and the Correct Analysis

The marketing researcher asks some version of the following question in every study, "Tell me what you want?" The rest is a summary of the notes taken during the ensuing conversation.



Steve Jobs' quote suggests that we might do better getting a reaction to an actual product. You tell me that price is not particularly important to you, yet this one here costs too much. You claim that design is not an issue, except you love the look of the product shown. In casual discussion color does not matter, but that shade of aqua is ugly and you will not buy it.

Although Steve Jobs was speaking of product design using focus groups, we are free to apply his rule to all decontextualized research. "Show it to them" provides the context for product design when we embed the showing within a usage occasion. On the other hand, if you seek incremental improvements to current products and services, you ask about problems experienced or extensions desired in concrete situations because that is the context within which these needs arise. Of course, we end up with a lot more variables in our datasets as soon as we start asking about the details of feature preference or product usage.

For example, instead of rating the importance of color in your next purchase of a car, suppose that you are shown a color array with numerous alternatives to which many of your responses are likely to be "no" or  marked "not applicable" because some colors are associated with options you are not buying. Yet, this is the context within which cars are purchased, and the manufacturer must be careful not to lose a customer when no color option is acceptable. In order to respond to the rating question, the car buyer searches memory for instances of "color problems" in the past. The manufacturer, on the other hand, is concerned about "color problems" in the future when only a handful of specific color combinations are available. Importance is simply the wrong question given the strategic issues.

Because the resulting data are high dimensional and sparse, it will be difficult to analyze with traditional multivariate techniques. This is where R makes it contribution by offering tools from machine and statistical learning designed for sparse and high dimensional data that are produced whenever we provide a context.

We find such analyses in the data from fragmented product categories, where diverse consumer segments shop within distinct distribution channels for non-overlapping products and features (e.g., music purchases by young teens and older retirees). We can turn to R packages for nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) and matrix completion (softImpute) to exploit such fragmentation and explain the observed high-dimensional and sparse data in terms of a much smaller set of inferred benefits.

What does your car color say about you? It's a topic discussed in the media and among friends. It is a type of collaboration among purchasers who may have never met yet find themselves in similar situations and satisfy their needs in much the same manner. A particular pattern of color preferences has meaning only because it is shared by some community. Matrix factorization reveals that hidden structure by identifying the latent benefits responsible for the observed color choices.

I may be mistaken, but I imagine that Steve Jobs might find all of this helpful.

Monday, June 22, 2015

Looking for Preference in All the Wrong Places: Neuroscience Suggests Choice Model Misspecification

At its core, choice modeling is a utility estimating machine. Everything has a value reflected in the price that we are willing to pay in order to obtain it. Here are a collection of Smart Watches from a search of Google Shopping. You are free to click on any one, look for more, or opt out altogether and buy nothing.


Where is the utility? It is in the brand name, the price, the user ratings and any other feature that gets noticed. If you pick only the Apple Smartwatch at its lowest price, I conclude that brand and price have high utility. It is a somewhat circular definition: I know that you value the Apple brand because you choose it, and you pick the Apple watch because the brand has value. We seem to be willing to live with such circularity as long as utility measured in one setting can be generalized over occasions and conditions. However, context matters when modeling human judgment and choice, making generalization a difficult endeavor. Utility theory is upended when higher prices alter perceptions so that the same food tastes better when it costs more.

What does any of this have to do with neuroscience? Utility theory was never about brain functioning. Glimcher and Fehr make this point in their brief history of neuroeconomics. Choice modeling is an "as if" theory claiming only that decision makers behave as if they assigned values to features and selected the option with the optimal feature mix.

When the choice task has been reduced to a set of feature comparisons as is the common practice in most choice modeling, the process seems to work at least in the laboratory (i.e., care must be taken to mimic the purchase process and adjustment may be needed when making predictions about real-world market shares). Yet, does this describe what one does when looking at the above product display from Google Shopping? I might try to compare the ingredients listed on the back of two packages while shopping in the supermarket. However, most of us find this task quickly becomes too difficult as the number of features exceeds our short-term memory limits (paying attention is costly).

Incorporating Preference Construction

Neuroeconomics suggests how value is constructed on-the-fly in real world choice tasks. Specifically, reinforcement learning is supported by multiple systems within the brain: "dual controllers" for both the association of features and rewards (model-free utilities) and the active evaluation of possible futures (model-based search). Daw, Niv and Dayan identified the two corresponding regions of the brain and summarized the supporting evidence back in 2005.

Features can become directly tied to value so that the reward is inferred immediately from the presence of the feature. Moreover, if we think of choice modeling only as the final stages when we are deciding among a small set of alternatives in a competitive consideration set, we might mistakenly conclude that utility maximization describes decision making. As in the movies, we may wish to "flashback" to the beginning of the purchase process to discover the path that ended at the choice point where features seem to dominate the representation.

Perception, action and utility are all entangled in the wild, as shown by the work of Gershman and Daw. Attention focuses on the most or least desirable features in the context of the goals we wish to achieve. We simulate the essentials of the consumption experience and ignore the rest. Retrospection is remembering the past, and prospection is experiencing the future. The steak garners greater utility sizzling than raw because it is easier to imagine the joy of eating it.

While the cognitive scientist wants to model the details of this process, the marketer will be satisfied learning enough to make the sale and keep the customer happy. In particular, marketing tries to learn what attracts attention, engages interest and consideration, generates desire and perceived need, and drives purchase while retaining customers (i.e., the AIDA model). These are the building blocks from which value is constructed.

Choice modeling, unfortunately, can identify the impact of features only within the confines of a single study, but it encounters difficulties attempting to generalize any effects beyond the data collected. Many of us are troubled that even relatively minor changes can alter the framing of the choice task or direct attention toward a previously unnoticed aspect (Attention and Reference Dependence).

The issue is not one of data collection or statistical analysis. The R package support.BWS will assist with the experimental design, and other R packages such as bayesm, RSGHB and ChoiceModelR will estimate the parameters of a hierarchical Bayes model. No, the difficulty stems from needing to present each respondent with multiple choice scenarios. Even if we limit the number of choice sets that any one individual will evaluate, we are still forced to simplify the task in order to show all the features for all the alternatives in the same choice set. In addition, multiple choice sets impose some demands for consistency so that a choice strategy that can be used over and over again without a lot of effort is preferred by respondents just to get through the questionnaire. On the other hand, costly information search is eliminated, and there is no anticipatory regret or rethinking one's purchase since there is no actual transfer of money. In the end, our choice model is misspecified for two reasons: it does not include the variables that drive purchase in real markets and the reactive effects of the experimental arrangements create confounding effects that do not occur outside of the study.

Measuring the Forces Shaping Preference

Consumption is not random but structured by situational need and usage occasion. "How do you intend to use your Smartwatch?" is a good question to ask when you begin your shopping, although we will need to be specific because small differences in usage can make a large difference in what is purchased. To be clear, we are not looking for well-formed preferences, for instance, feature importance or contribution to purchase. Instead, we focus on attention, awareness and familiarity that might be precursors or early phases of preference formation. If you own an iPhone, you might never learn about Android Wear. What, if anything, can we learn from the apps on your Smartphone?

I have shown how the R package NMF for nonnegative matrix factorization can uncover these building blocks. We might wish to think of NMF as a form of collaborative filtering, not unlike a recommender system that partitions users into cliques or communities and products into genres or types (e.g., sci-fi enthusiasts and the fantasy/thrillers they watch). An individual pattern of awareness and familiarity is not very helpful unless it is shared by a larger community with similar needs arising from common situations. Product markets evolve over time by appealing to segments willing to pay more for differentiated offerings. In turn, the new offerings solidify customer differences. This separation of products and users into segregated communities forms the scaffolding used to construct preferences, and this is where we should begin our research and statistical analysis.

Tuesday, June 2, 2015

Statistical Models with a Point of View: First vs. Third Person



Marketing data can be collected in the first or third person, and we require different statistical models for each point of view.




Netflix encourages you to adopt a third-person perspective when it surveys your taste preferences by asking how often you watch different genres (e.g., action and adventures, comedies, dramas, horror, thrillers and more). Third-person remembering taps those regions of the brain responsible for semantic memory. We respond as we would in a conversation providing general information about ourselves. Is the Twilight Saga horror or romance? It does not matter since we answer about the genre without retrieving specific movies. Neither do we ponder the definition of the response categories: never, sometimes and often. I never watch horror films because they scare me and I avoid them, which I should not know because I never watch them, except for the horror movies that I do see and call thrillers. Such preference ratings are positioning statements about who we think we are and how we wish to present ourselves.

On the other hand, first-person recollection is needed to rate individual movies that we have seen. We answer by reliving the viewing experience, which is impacted by context (where, when, who we were with and what else we were doing while watching). We call this episodic memory, which is different from semantic memory, with its own region of the brain and its own retrieval process. Someone asks if you liked a particular movie and you cannot remember seeing it until they tell you the actors and describe aspects of the plot. Both of these are examples of episodic memory. First, the movie that was a blur suddenly becomes clear after some detail is mentioned and memories flood your mind. The second example is your first-person recollection that you have had such an episodic memory experience in the past.

We analyze data obtained from third-person remembering using the statistical methods that are most familiar to those with a social science background (e.g., regression, factor analysis and structural equation modeling). Semantic data is, well, semantic, and it has a factor structure that reflects the meaning of words. If you say that you like action films, then any genre associated with action will also be liked, where association is found in the way words are used by marketers, film critics and in everyday conversation. If I mention Jurassic Park, one can bring to mind one or more scenes from the film and perhaps even recall some details about your first viewing. You cannot do the same for the "science fiction" category, assuming that Jurassic Park is science fiction and not fantasy/thriller.

My point is that any questions about the genre or category will be answered by retrieving general semantic knowledge, including the way we have learned to talk about those genres. Thus, if I ask about usage, satisfaction or importance, I will be tapping the same semantic knowledge structures with all the relationships that you have learned over time by telling others what you think and feel and listening to others tell you what they think and feel. It will not matter whether my measurement is a rating or some type of tradeoff or ranking (e.g., MaxDiff). I am not denying that such information is useful to marketing simply that it is at least one step removed from remembered experiences.

This is not the case with first-person recollection that forces the respondent to relive the episode. You recently watched a specific movie and now you give it a rating by remembering how you felt and how much you liked it. Over time you can rate many movies, but only a very small fraction of all that is available. Your movie rating data is high-dimensional and sparse. Moreover, this tends to be the case for episodic data in general when the episodes are occasion-based combinations of many factors (e.g., who uses what for this or that purpose at a particular time in a specific place with or without others present).

In the third-person, we can ask everyone the same question and let them fill in the details. "How important was product quality when you made your purchase?" deliberatively leaves product quality open to interpretation. But in the first-person we ask about a series of specific events: knowing warranty protection and return policy, reviewing user comments, reading expert evaluations, trial usage in a store or through another user, familiarity with the brand, and so on. Of course, product quality is but one of many purchase criteria, so the list of specific events gets quite long and increasingly sparse since potential customers tend to focus their attention on a subset of all the items in our checklist.

As sparse data become more common, R adds more ways to handle it with both supervised (glmnet) and unsupervised (sparcl) packages. The new book by Hastie, Tibshirani and Wainwright, Statistical Learning with Sparsity, brings together all this work along with matrix decomposition and compressed sensing (which is where one would place nonnegative matrix factorization). High dimensionality ceases to be a curse and turns into a blessing when the additional data reveals an underlying structure that we could not observe until we began to ask in the first person.